Archive for the ‘Environment’ Category
If the IMF is asked for funds from the EU, it won’t have enough resources for the rest of the worlds emerging markets if there is a contagion.
The fiscal situation in the EU’s GIIPS countries is not good, but it’s not like they were jewels to begin with, they’ve battled these problems for decades, even centuries.
The ECB must resolve this. Today, there exists a real possibility that the EZ might just break apart and countries would return to multiple currencies.
The ECB must stop the meltdown by buying GIIPS bonds as needed.
The human cost to natural disasters like the one in Turkey weeks ago include injuries and temporary and permanent disabilities, temporary and permanent displacement of people, increased poverty and disease, and psychological scars. In addition Economic costs, based largely on direct infrastructure or losses of fixed capital and inventory, are also underestimated. Many indirect effects on economic activity include long-term consequences of the reallocation of investment resources, and the loss in human capital. Over the past year the incidence of natural disaster has increased.
The El Niño and La Niña events, associated with anomalous floods, droughts, and storms, are getting larger and more frequent.
In fact commodity producers are already bracing for another La Niña, a weather phenomenon that wreaked havoc earlier this year on commodities markets, sending prices to multiyear highs. La Niña is a shift to cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, causing above normal rainfall in south-east Asia and northern and eastern Australia, and an increase in tropical cyclones. Here in the USA, our Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are wetter while the southern states face a lack of rain. In South America the heavy rains threaten coffee, corn and soybean production. India experiences an increase in monsoons, threatening their iron and ore. South East Asia and Australia experience heavy rains that destroy the harvests of rubber, palm oil, coal, wheat, and sugar. The change in the elements has a huge impact on commodities production.
At this point it really doesn’t matter which way the crisis in Greece goes. The worlds confidence has fallen as bond markets have shown more alarm and the GIIPS have been forced a bailout. Government debt situations and the banking industry and heavily linked GLOBALLY, and more is likely to come (MF GLOBAL).
The fall in confidence has led to a convincing bailout but weaknesses in the Eurozone will still remain. Money is already fleeing the Eurozone, the dollar only an alternative. The Swiss Franc and the Yen are no-longer safe-havens because their central banks have intervened to artificially weaken those currencies.
Today the U.S. dollar is the only really liquid place for cash to go. Greece can get a bailout but she will weaken tomorrow.
The EU has no choice but to leave Greece bankrupt and in chaos. Modern Greece has not been much of a democracy in the last 60 years. Confidence is down. When they re-print the Drachma to pay bills, hyper inflation will be terrible, “contagion” is worse.
“This is a question of whether we remain in the euro zone. This is very clear. It’s clear to everyone” – PapandreouIn Belgian, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Culture, default, Economic Institutions, Environment, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, FX, Global Economics, latin america, macroeconomic factors, MF Global, Multibillion, Nuclear, philanthropy, price volatility in energy, Regulatory demands, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 3, 2011 at 3:44 am
Ok, here is the itinerary: The ECB is meeting on November 3rd. The G20 is meeting on November 3-4, The Papandreou is attending on the 2nd day. A Eurogroup meeting will follow on November 7th, followed by an EU Ecofin meeting on November 8.
The Troika was meant to disburse the sixth tranche of the first program in the first or second week of November, as Papandreou returns from G20 weaker we may not see this funding pass.
Martin Coward, co-founder of Ikos Financial and estranged husband of Elena Ambrosiadou, is preparing to launch his own hedge fund. The FT reports the fund will be activated next year, using the same state of the art proprietary technology to benefit from high frequency trading that has lead to Ikos’s success.
Although Coward is the original code designer he does not have ownership of it.
Ms. Elena Ambrosiadou has put in place an injunction that is enforceable in the EU (UK & Cyprus) making it illegal for Mr. Coward from talking about Ikos or to any individual connected to the fund, ever.
EU banks have received a short period of relief from the unpleasant sovereign debt crisis of the GIIPS. As bank shares recovered from political efforts to provide a comprehensive program for resolving the crisis. The recent 29% writedown on Greek debt held by the private sector and a plan to help support bank racapitalisation by 106 billion euros by the end of June. Days following this deal and many assurences that investors would be 100% capable of raising equity, the MF Global bankruptcy this monday proves different.
This after Bernanke reassured congress in July that US banks exposure to troubled EU nations was “quite small.”
These writedowns and restructures are not enough, the EU does not have “months” to vote on approval. Markets are down accross the board. A decision must be made immediately. It looks as though Greece will be ejected from the Euro using the bail out fund to partially compensate the banks holding Greek debt within EU.
Since 1990, the poverty rate in Brazil has halved, declining on average by 1.2% a year. This year Brazil’s economy is forecast to grow by 3.6%. Brazil is on track to overtake Britain to become the sixth largest economy in the world.
With a GDP per person, at around $11,000, Brazilhas been growing at an average annual rate of 1.7% since 1990. Nevertheless, despite these government led initiatives further action is needed. 8.5% of Brazil’s population still live on less than $1.50 a day.
It appears the EFSF deal has been reached. As expected, it will be 1.4 trillion, by using 400-500% leverage on cash. Write down on Greek debt will be 50% (really 29%). Italy pledges to cut debt gdp ratio to 113% by 2013. The TARP, Euro banks will be funded with 30 billion for recapitalization.
Dow should be up 1k tomorrow.
US sovereign credit rating has been downgraded and businesses are adapting to a volatile and lower growth marketplace. Americans are cutting spending and saving like never before. The risk is now led by political leaders who are unable to recognize that sovereign debt still exists and is CONTAGIOUS!
Oncoming US elections have furthered uncertainty about leadership. The demand for US treasury securities have risen and yields have fallen.