Andreas S. Koudellou

Archive for the ‘spillover effect’ Category

$GS screenshot on the most important economies for global markets.

In Arctic Oscillation, Argentina and Brazil, Belgian, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Commodities, crimea, Crisis in Japan, Culture, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), default, demographic, distorted markets, drone invasion, Economic Institutions, El Niño and La Niña, Environment, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, FX, global breadbasket, Global Economics, Groupon legt Traumstart an der Börse, Hedge Fund, ICE Brent Crude oil, IKOS Financial, ipo, latin america, libor, macroeconomic factors, Multibillion, new york city, Nuclear, philanthropy, price volatility in energy, Proprietary, publish, Regulatory demands, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on March 15, 2014 at 5:39 am

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U.S. Inventories and Production Levels: Natural Gas & Crude Oil

In Arctic Oscillation, Argentina and Brazil, Capital Shortfall, Commodities, Crisis in Japan, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), Economic Institutions, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, Global Economics, Groupon legt Traumstart an der Börse, ICE Brent Crude oil, IKOS Financial, latin america, Multibillion, price volatility in energy, Proprietary, Regulatory demands, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets, Uncategorized on February 18, 2013 at 5:13 am

U.S. Inventories and Production Levels.

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Hurricane Sandy impact compared with other cyclones.

In Arctic Oscillation, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Commodities, Economic Institutions, Groupon legt Traumstart an der Börse, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 8, 2012 at 3:19 am

Hurricane Sandy had an impact of around $40B…& ranks 3rd for damaging. in the picture its compared with other cyclones.
Please feel free to comment.

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Commodities volatility

In Arctic Oscillation, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Commodities, Crisis in Japan, Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), default, Economic Institutions, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, Global Economics, Groupon legt Traumstart an der Börse, Hedge Fund, ICE Brent Crude oil, macroeconomic factors, MF Global, Multibillion, Nuclear, philanthropy, price volatility in energy, Proprietary, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on December 22, 2011 at 3:08 am

Social unrest and revolt during the Arab spring led to a restricted N African supply of crude. Japan’s catastrophic quake halted her industrial production lines. These events created unprecedented volatility in the raw commodities industry, the volatility is set to continue through 2012 as more austere fiscal measures are adopted.

The ECB must stop the meltdown by buying GIIPS bonds

In Belgian, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Commodities, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), Economic Institutions, El Niño and La Niña, Environment, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, Global Economics, MF Global, Multibillion, price volatility in energy, Proprietary, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 30, 2011 at 3:37 am

If the IMF is asked for funds from the EU, it won’t have enough resources for the rest of the worlds emerging markets if there is a contagion.

The fiscal situation in the EU’s GIIPS countries is not good, but it’s not like they were jewels to begin with, they’ve battled these problems for decades, even centuries.

The ECB must resolve this. Today, there exists a real possibility that the EZ might just break apart and countries would return to multiple currencies.

The ECB must stop the meltdown by buying GIIPS bonds as needed.

Statistics in Greece is a combat sport

In Arctic Oscillation, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Commodities, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), Economic Institutions, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, FX, Global Economics, macroeconomic factors, MF Global, philanthropy, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 28, 2011 at 7:43 pm

Elstat is Greece’s new independent statistics agency. Elstat has been commissioned by the European Commission to “clean up” the statistics, after decades of corruption and inadequacy by the Greek finance ministry.

Yet, Elstat is now facing opposition in the form of an official criminal investigation by the Greek government for “inflating the scale of the country’s financial crisis.

Accusations include delay in diaper aments of loan tranches.

EU Vassals.

In Arctic Oscillation, Belgian, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Commodities, Culture, Cyprus, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), default, Economic Institutions, El Niño and La Niña, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, FX, Global Economics, Hedge Fund, ICE Brent Crude oil, IKOS Financial, latin america, Multibillion, price volatility in energy, Regulatory demands, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 17, 2011 at 7:47 pm

One, politics in Europe are local, not “European.”
Two, monetary, fiscal, and labor policy are at the core of the problems in the GIIPS.
Third, The EU had better identify itself and make its presence known- finally.

It is her “fight or flight” moment. The Entire EU hangs in the balance, and coupled with that the US economy. Sovereign debt and negative growth are actually spreading.

Mr. Monti and Mr. Papademos must play a role in tightening the fiscal policies and make the structural reforms needed. These technocrats, should provide a positive step in increasing pro investor policy.

Read this Article America, 11m borrowers “under water”

In Arctic Oscillation, Capital Shortfall, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), Economic Institutions, Financing Reconstruction, FX, Global Economics, macroeconomic factors, Regulatory demands, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 9, 2011 at 5:20 pm

30m mortgage holders out of 55m are paying above market interest rates… 1% over the average for a new 30 year…
This is quoted from the article: “I answered an ad in 1995 that I thought was for a job related to “security” (as in security guard) but was in fact related to “securities.” That’s how little I knew about the stock market. A few months later I found myself working a phone at a Fidelity Investments call center. Things went well, and by 1999 I was a Merrill Lynch financial adviser and a certified financial planner.”
— How a Financial Pro Lost His House – NYTimes.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/business/how-a-financial-pro-lost-his-house.html

Managing Economic Crises, Don’t Forget the Impact of Natural Disaster

In Arctic Oscillation, Argentina and Brazil, Cataclysm, Commodities, Crisis in Japan, Economic Institutions, El Niño and La Niña, Environment, Financing Reconstruction, FX, Global Economics, ICE Brent Crude oil, latin america, macroeconomic factors, Multibillion, price volatility in energy, Proprietary, Regulatory demands, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 3, 2011 at 6:50 pm

The human cost to natural disasters like the one in Turkey weeks ago include injuries and temporary and permanent disabilities, temporary and permanent displacement of people, increased poverty and disease, and psychological scars. In addition Economic costs, based largely on direct infrastructure or losses of fixed capital and inventory, are also underestimated. Many indirect effects on economic activity include long-term consequences of the reallocation of investment resources, and the loss in human capital. Over the past year the incidence of natural disaster has increased.

The El Niño and La Niña events, associated with anomalous floods, droughts, and storms, are getting larger and more frequent.

In fact commodity producers are already bracing for another La Niña, a weather phenomenon that wreaked havoc earlier this year on commodities markets, sending prices to multiyear highs. La Niña is a shift to cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, causing above normal rainfall in south-east Asia and northern and eastern Australia, and an increase in tropical cyclones. Here in the USA, our Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are wetter while the southern states face a lack of rain. In South America the heavy rains threaten coffee, corn and soybean production. India experiences an increase in monsoons, threatening their iron and ore. South East Asia and Australia experience heavy rains that destroy the harvests of rubber, palm oil, coal, wheat, and sugar. The change in the elements has a huge impact on commodities production.

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Crisis of Confidence

In Belgian, Capital Shortfall, Cataclysm, Cyprus, Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), default, Economic Institutions, Environment, European Union, Financing Reconstruction, FX, Global Economics, Hedge Fund, ICE Brent Crude oil, IKOS Financial, latin america, macroeconomic factors, MF Global, Multibillion, Nuclear, philanthropy, price volatility in energy, Proprietary, Regulatory demands, selective default, spillover effect, Turbulent Markets on November 3, 2011 at 3:59 pm

At this point it really doesn’t matter which way the crisis in Greece goes. The worlds confidence has fallen as bond markets have shown more alarm and the GIIPS have been forced a bailout. Government debt situations and the banking industry and heavily linked GLOBALLY, and more is likely to come (MF GLOBAL).
The fall in confidence has led to a convincing bailout but weaknesses in the Eurozone will still remain. Money is already fleeing the Eurozone, the dollar only an alternative. The Swiss Franc and the Yen are no-longer safe-havens because their central banks have intervened to artificially weaken those currencies.
Today the U.S. dollar is the only really liquid place for cash to go. Greece can get a bailout but she will weaken tomorrow.
The EU has no choice but to leave Greece bankrupt and in chaos. Modern Greece has not been much of a democracy in the last 60 years. Confidence is down. When they re-print the Drachma to pay bills, hyper inflation will be terrible, “contagion” is worse.

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