CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Contest Bonus Bucks for Friday, November 18

Bonus Bucks for Friday, November 18 (the ones posted Thursday night).

1. On Wednesday, the Bank of England predicted that inflation would fall to what level in two year’s time?
D. 1.3 percent

2. Despite the U.S. consumer confidence at recession levels, Smead Capital Management believes its time to buy shares of consumer discretionary stocks. Which ones does it suggest?
A. Walgreen, Starbucks, Nordstrom

3. According to Hiring For Attitude, one of CNBC.com’s best books for the holidays, what percentage of newly hired employees fail within 18 months?
A. 46 percent

EU Vassals.

One, politics in Europe are local, not “European.”
Two, monetary, fiscal, and labor policy are at the core of the problems in the GIIPS.
Third, The EU had better identify itself and make its presence known- finally.

It is her “fight or flight” moment. The Entire EU hangs in the balance, and coupled with that the US economy. Sovereign debt and negative growth are actually spreading.

Mr. Monti and Mr. Papademos must play a role in tightening the fiscal policies and make the structural reforms needed. These technocrats, should provide a positive step in increasing pro investor policy.

Record Month For Bond Holders

Bond managers have recovered record profits in the past month.
See attached charts, courtesy of Jpm:

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Weakest Performing Financials (domestic & foreign)

No. Ticker % Change Industry
1 MKTG -20.71 FINANCIAL
2 ING -11.96 FINANCIAL
3 HMPR -10.18 FINANCIAL
4 AEG -8.82 FINANCIAL
5 DB -8.78 FINANCIAL
6 BCS -8.55 FINANCIAL
7 DGIT -8.53 FINANCIAL
8 RDN -8.53 FINANCIAL
9 OCN -8.25 FINANCIAL
10 HBC -8.04 FINANCIAL
11 CS -8.03 FINANCIAL
12 PNSN -7.76 FINANCIAL
13 LMLP -7.56 FINANCIAL
14 STD -7.25 FINANCIAL
15 ENOC -7.08 FINANCIAL
16 BBVA -6.99 FINANCIAL
17 UBS -6.90 FINANCIAL
18 LIME -6.87 FINANCIAL
19 PUK -6.80 FINANCIAL
20 NBG -6.44 FINANCIAL
21 LYG -6.35 FINANCIAL
22 MS -6.29 FINANCIAL
23 ETFC -6.27 FINANCIAL
24 NCT -6.14 FINANCIAL
25 Z -6.09 FINANCIAL
26 JEF -6.03 FINANCIAL
27 CRD-B -5.72 FINANCIAL
28 RF -5.71 FINANCIAL
29 DRL -5.51 FINANCIAL
30 IRE -5.50 FINANCIAL
31 GRNB -5.47 FINANCIAL
32 LNC -5.47 FINANCIAL
33 KB -5.43 FINANCIAL
34 TAOM -5.28 FINANCIAL
35 JNS -5.26 FINANCIAL
36 PFG -5.25 FINANCIAL
37 MTG -5.21 FINANCIAL
38 PRU -5.19 FINANCIAL
39 PL -5.13 FINANCIAL
40 STI -5.10 FINANCIAL
41 UVE -5.07 FINANCIAL
42 LABL -5.07 FINANCIAL
43 SHG -5.05 FINANCIAL
44 TPGI -5.04 FINANCIAL
45 MET -5.02 FINANCIAL
46 AAT -5.00 FINANCIAL
47 LAZ -4.92 FINANCIAL
48 COWN -4.91 FINANCIAL
49 IBN -4.91 FINANCIAL
50 OZM -4.90 FINANCIAL

Today’s Worst Performing Foreign Financials:
No. Ticker % Change Industry Market Cap
1 DB -6.77 Foreign Money Center Banks 52,860,000,000
2 NBG -6.15 Foreign Money Center Banks 6,210,000,000
3 BCS -5.95 Foreign Money Center Banks 47,100,000,000
4 STD -5.94 Foreign Money Center Banks 96,000,000,000
5 LYG -5.76 Foreign Money Center Banks 49,970,000,000
6 AIB -5.06 Foreign Money Center Banks 2,180,000,000
7 ITUB -4.21 Foreign Money Center Banks 102,640,000,000
8 UBS -3.85 Foreign Money Center Banks 67,090,000,000
9 WBK -3.72 Foreign Money Center Banks 70,740,000,000
10 CS -3.62 Foreign Money Center Banks 45,720,000,000
11 GGAL -3.09 Foreign Money Center Banks 1,810,000,000
12 HBC -2.17 Foreign Money Center Banks 174,630,000,000
No. Ticker % Change Industry Market Cap
1 BBVA -7.08 Foreign Regional Banks 49,400,000,000
2 IRE -3.77 Foreign Regional Banks 1,400,000,000
3 BBD -3.65 Foreign Regional Banks 76,450,000,000
4 BMA -3.50 Foreign Regional Banks 2,340,000,000
5 BPOP -3.44 Foreign Regional Banks 2,820,000,000
6 HDB -3.08 Foreign Regional Banks 28,150,000,000
7 SHG -2.95 Foreign Regional Banks 22,760,000,000
8 BFR -2.91 Foreign Regional Banks 1,840,000,000
9 IBN -2.33 Foreign Regional Banks 27,640,000,000

Read this Article America, 11m borrowers “under water”

30m mortgage holders out of 55m are paying above market interest rates… 1% over the average for a new 30 year…
This is quoted from the article: “I answered an ad in 1995 that I thought was for a job related to “security” (as in security guard) but was in fact related to “securities.” That’s how little I knew about the stock market. A few months later I found myself working a phone at a Fidelity Investments call center. Things went well, and by 1999 I was a Merrill Lynch financial adviser and a certified financial planner.”
— How a Financial Pro Lost His House – NYTimes.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/business/how-a-financial-pro-lost-his-house.html

Anglo American Plc Buyout

Anglo American Plc has bought out the Oppenheimer family’s 40% ownership of De Beers for approx. $5.1bn in cash. Anglo, will now control just over 85% of De Beers has forecasted a rise in demand for diamonds in emerging countries…
“We’re seeing in the first half of this year a tremendous increase in demand coming out of emerging countries as well as developed countries,”… “In 2005, India and China represented about 8% of demand. By 2015, India, China and the Gulf will represent about close to 40%.”
Anglo is no stranger to buyouts, having purchased the Minas Rio iron-ore project (Brazil) for $5.5bn in 2008.

Groupon Traumstart

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Since IPO, Groupon has lost $3bn market cap – half of what Google offered them.

Managing Economic Crises, Don’t Forget the Impact of Natural Disaster

The human cost to natural disasters like the one in Turkey weeks ago include injuries and temporary and permanent disabilities, temporary and permanent displacement of people, increased poverty and disease, and psychological scars. In addition Economic costs, based largely on direct infrastructure or losses of fixed capital and inventory, are also underestimated. Many indirect effects on economic activity include long-term consequences of the reallocation of investment resources, and the loss in human capital. Over the past year the incidence of natural disaster has increased.

The El Niño and La Niña events, associated with anomalous floods, droughts, and storms, are getting larger and more frequent.

In fact commodity producers are already bracing for another La Niña, a weather phenomenon that wreaked havoc earlier this year on commodities markets, sending prices to multiyear highs. La Niña is a shift to cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, causing above normal rainfall in south-east Asia and northern and eastern Australia, and an increase in tropical cyclones. Here in the USA, our Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are wetter while the southern states face a lack of rain. In South America the heavy rains threaten coffee, corn and soybean production. India experiences an increase in monsoons, threatening their iron and ore. South East Asia and Australia experience heavy rains that destroy the harvests of rubber, palm oil, coal, wheat, and sugar. The change in the elements has a huge impact on commodities production.

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Crisis of Confidence

At this point it really doesn’t matter which way the crisis in Greece goes. The worlds confidence has fallen as bond markets have shown more alarm and the GIIPS have been forced a bailout. Government debt situations and the banking industry and heavily linked GLOBALLY, and more is likely to come (MF GLOBAL).
The fall in confidence has led to a convincing bailout but weaknesses in the Eurozone will still remain. Money is already fleeing the Eurozone, the dollar only an alternative. The Swiss Franc and the Yen are no-longer safe-havens because their central banks have intervened to artificially weaken those currencies.
Today the U.S. dollar is the only really liquid place for cash to go. Greece can get a bailout but she will weaken tomorrow.
The EU has no choice but to leave Greece bankrupt and in chaos. Modern Greece has not been much of a democracy in the last 60 years. Confidence is down. When they re-print the Drachma to pay bills, hyper inflation will be terrible, “contagion” is worse.

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“This is a question of whether we remain in the euro zone. This is very clear. It’s clear to everyone” – Papandreou

Ok, here is the itinerary: The ECB is meeting on November 3rd. The G20 is meeting on November 3-4, The Papandreou is attending on the 2nd day. A Eurogroup meeting will follow on November 7th, followed by an EU Ecofin meeting on November 8.
The Troika was meant to disburse the sixth tranche of the first program in the first or second week of November, as Papandreou returns from G20 weaker we may not see this funding pass.

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